The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned in Bangkok that around 130 million people could be pushed into poverty this year as rising energy prices linked to the Iran war, high interest rates and a severe El Niño add to the pressures facing developing countries. The warning highlights the danger of successive crises compounding one another, leaving countries and people exposed to several economic and climate-related challenges at once.
Multiple pressures are converging
The UNDP’s assessment identifies three pressures behind the risk: higher energy prices following the Iran war, elevated interest rates and a severe El Niño. The organisation’s concern is not presented as the effect of a single event. Rather, its warning reflects the combined impact of successive crises on developing countries, where several sources of strain can overlap and make it harder to protect people from falling into poverty.
Energy prices are one part of that picture. When energy becomes more expensive, households and businesses can face higher costs, while governments and economies must contend with a more difficult price environment. The UNDP has linked the latest rise to the Iran war and included it among the factors that could push millions into poverty. Its warning places the cost pressure in a wider context: it is happening alongside high interest rates and a severe climate event, not in isolation.
High interest rates form a separate but related challenge in the UNDP’s assessment. They add to the difficult conditions confronting developing countries as they respond to successive crises. The organisation has not described the warning as a forecast for a particular country or set out a country-by-country estimate in the information provided. Its central concern is the scale of the risk across people who may be pushed into poverty this year.
Climate risks add to economic strain
The severe El Niño cited by the UNDP adds a climate-related dimension to the warning. The statement does not specify which locations or communities are expected to face the greatest effects, nor does it provide a detailed account of particular impacts. But by identifying El Niño alongside energy prices and interest rates, the UNDP is drawing attention to the way different kinds of crises can coincide and increase pressure on vulnerable populations.
The figure of around 130 million people describes those who could be pushed into poverty this year. It is a warning about risk, rather than a statement that all of those people have already fallen into poverty. The distinction matters: the UNDP is highlighting a potential outcome as the pressures develop, and its alert underlines the scale of the possible consequences if the overlapping challenges intensify.
Developing countries face successive crises
The warning, issued in Bangkok, points to the cumulative burden facing developing countries. The UNDP’s message is that successive crises are affecting these countries, with the effects of one pressure unfolding alongside others. Higher energy prices, interest rates and a severe El Niño each present a challenge in their own right; together, they form the basis of the organisation’s concern about a large increase in poverty risk.
The alert puts the focus on the millions of people who may be most exposed to those combined pressures, while stopping short of identifying individual countries or providing further numerical breakdowns. It also frames poverty risk as part of a wider pattern of instability for developing economies: conditions can become more difficult when price pressures, financial constraints and climate-related challenges occur at the same time.
With around 130 million people potentially at risk this year, the UNDP’s warning underscores the scale of the challenge facing developing countries as they navigate the effects of the Iran war, high interest rates and severe El Niño conditions. The organisation’s caution in Bangkok is centred on how these successive crises are converging - and on the possibility that their combined pressure could push millions more people into poverty.
