The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Nepal’s economy to grow by 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.7 percent in 2027 in its latest World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday. The forecast places growth below 4 percent in both years, following an estimated expansion of 4.4 percent in 2025. The IMF also expects consumer inflation in Nepal to ease to 3.1 percent in 2026 from an estimated 4.1 percent.
Growth expected to remain below 4 percent
The projections point to slower economic growth in 2026 and 2027 than the expansion estimated for 2025. The IMF’s figures show a 0.8 percentage-point difference between the estimated 4.4 percent growth in 2025 and the 3.6 percent forecast for 2026. Growth is projected to edge up by 0.1 percentage point in 2027, to 3.7 percent, but would still remain below the 4 percent mark.
The 2025 figure is an estimate, while the figures for 2026 and 2027 are projections. They therefore describe different stages of the IMF’s assessment: an estimate of the economy’s recent performance and forecasts for the next two years. The outlook presents a gradual easing in the pace of growth from 2025, followed by a modest improvement in 2027.
The figures are national growth projections and do not, on their own, explain which sectors or factors are expected to influence Nepal’s economic performance. The information provided with the outlook does not specify a reason for the projected slowdown, or identify how individual industries may contribute to the forecast. The growth rates are therefore best read as the IMF’s broad assessment of the economy rather than a sector-by-sector account.
Inflation forecast to ease
Alongside its growth outlook, the IMF expects consumer inflation in Nepal to fall to 3.1 percent in 2026, down from an estimated 4.1 percent. That is a projected decline of 1 percentage point. The inflation figure for 2026 is a forecast, while the 2025 rate is described as an estimate.
The two measures offer separate views of the outlook. Economic growth refers to the projected pace of expansion, while the inflation forecast tracks the expected change in consumer prices. The IMF’s latest figures thus combine a below-4-percent growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 with an expectation that consumer inflation will be lower in 2026 than the 2025 estimate. They do not, by themselves, indicate how those forecasts may affect household budgets or particular prices.
Outlook for the next two years
The IMF’s projections set out a relatively narrow change in growth between 2026 and 2027: an increase from 3.6 percent to 3.7 percent. That slight rise would not bring projected growth back to the estimated 2025 rate of 4.4 percent. The outlook consequently places Nepal’s economy on a slower growth path over the two forecast years, with inflation expected to ease in 2026.
The projections were published in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook on Tuesday. They provide the institution’s estimates and forecasts for Nepal across three consecutive years: estimated growth of 4.4 percent in 2025, projected growth of 3.6 percent in 2026 and 3.7 percent in 2027, and a consumer-inflation forecast of 3.1 percent for 2026 compared with an estimated 4.1 percent in 2025.
