Israel is set to hold general elections next Tuesday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a tough contest for power against his rival Gadi Eisenkot, three years after the war in Gaza began. Opinion polls show a close race between Netanyahu's Likud party and the centrist Yesh Atid party led by Eisenkot, leaving the outcome of the vote far from certain. With at least 61 seats needed in Israel's 120-member Knesset to form a government, the ballot is likely to be followed by hard-fought coalition bargaining, making Tuesday's vote one of the most closely watched in the country in recent years.
A tight race between Likud and Yesh Atid
The central battle lines of the election run between Likud, the party of the sitting prime minister, and Yesh Atid, the centrist party led by Eisenkot. According to a report by Ratopati, opinion surveys conducted ahead of the vote show the two main contenders running neck and neck, with neither enjoying a decisive lead. For Netanyahu, the election is a fight to remain in office, while for Eisenkot it represents a clear opportunity to unseat the prime minister and place a centrist government in power instead.
The narrowness of the race gives the closing days of campaigning added weight. In a contest where the leading parties are separated by only a few points in the polls, even modest shifts in voter sentiment before Tuesday could determine which contender is best positioned to assemble a government. Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yesh Atid are the two poles of the battle, and their head-to-head contest has framed the election's central question: who will lead Israel's next government?
The 61-seat hurdle
The key numbers shaping the vote are straightforward:
- 120 members sit in the Knesset, Israel's parliament
- 61 seats are needed to form a government
- Two main contenders lead the race, Netanyahu's Likud and Eisenkot's Yesh Atid
Polls showing Likud and Yesh Atid running close also suggest that neither party can count on crossing the 61-seat line on its own. In practice, that requirement reflects the coalition-driven nature of Israeli politics, where governments are built through alliances rather than single-party sweeps. It means the task of forming the next government will likely fall to whichever leader can put together a bloc of at least 61 seats once the results are tallied.
That arithmetic gives the parties that end up holding the balance of power in the incoming Knesset potential kingmaker status. A bloc that falls short of 61 seats despite a strong showing will be forced into negotiations and compromise, while the side that reaches the threshold first will hold the upper hand in the bargaining over the next government. If neither side can get there, the country could be left facing a period of political uncertainty after the votes are counted.
Three years after the Gaza war
The timing of the vote adds a further layer of significance. The election comes three years after the war in Gaza began, meaning Israelis will head to the polls with the conflict still shaping the country's political landscape. For a nation that has spent the past three years governed under the shadow of that war, the ballot represents a moment of political reckoning, offering voters a chance to pass judgment on the leadership that has steered the country through the period.
Whether Netanyahu is rewarded with another term or Eisenkot succeeds in displacing him, the outcome will be read as a measure of how Israelis judge the way the country has been governed since the war began. That makes the election more than a race between two men: it is a verdict on the incumbent's stewardship at a pivotal moment, with consequences for the direction of the next government.
What to watch on Tuesday
When polling stations open next Tuesday, attention will first turn to the seat count in the 120-member Knesset and whether either Likud or Yesh Atid has broken out of the dead heat suggested by the polls. The decisive question, however, will be coalition-building, and specifically which of the two contenders can reach the 61-seat mark required to form a government. If the results confirm the tightness of the polls, Israelis may face a stretch of prolonged negotiation before the next prime minister is known, while a stronger-than-expected performance by either side could resolve the picture more quickly. Either way, the stakes are unambiguous: the vote will determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu or Gadi Eisenkot leads Israel's next government.
